Time-to-event (T2E) analysis is a branch of statistics that models the duration of time it takes for an event to occur. Such events can include outcomes like death, unemployment, or product failure. Most modern machine learning (ML) algorithms, like decision trees and kernel methods, are supported for T2E modelling with data science software (python and R). To complement these developments, SurvSet is the first open-source T2E dataset repository designed for a rapid benchmarking of ML algorithms and statistical methods. The data in SurvSet have been consistently formatted so that a single preprocessing method will work for all datasets. SurvSet currently has 76 datasets which vary in dimensionality, time dependency, and background (the majority of which come from biomedicine). SurvSet is available on PyPI and can be installed with pip install SurvSet. R users can download the data directly from the corresponding git repository.

Machine and statistical learning algorithms can be reliably automated and applied at scale. Therefore, they can constitute a considerable asset for designing practical forecasting systems, such as those related to urban water demand. Quantile regression algorithms are statistical and machine learning algorithms that can provide probabilistic forecasts in a straightforward way, and have not been applied so far for urban water demand forecasting. In this work, we aim to fill this gap by automating and extensively comparing several quantile-regression-based practical systems for probabilistic one-day ahead urban water demand forecasting. For designing the practical systems, we use five individual algorithms (i.e., the quantile regression, linear boosting, generalized random forest, gradient boosting machine and quantile regression neural network algorithms), their mean combiner and their median combiner. The comparison is conducted by exploiting a large urban water flow dataset, as well as several types of hydrometeorological time series (which are considered as exogenous predictor variables in the forecasting setting). The results mostly favour the practical systems designed using the linear boosting algorithm, probably due to the presence of trends in the urban water flow time series. The forecasts of the mean and median combiners are also found to be skilful in general terms.

Daily streamflow forecasting through data-driven approaches is traditionally performed using a single machine learning algorithm. Existing applications are mostly restricted to examination of few case studies, not allowing accurate assessment of the predictive performance of the algorithms involved. Here we propose super learning (a type of ensemble learning) by combining 10 machine learning algorithms. We apply the proposed algorithm in one-step ahead forecasting mode. For the application, we exploit a big dataset consisting of 10-year long time series of daily streamflow, precipitation and temperature from 511 basins. The super learner improves over the performance of the linear regression algorithm by 20.06%, outperforming the "hard to beat in practice" equal weight combiner. The latter improves over the performance of the linear regression algorithm by 19.21%. The best performing individual machine learning algorithm is neural networks, which improves over the performance of the linear regression algorithm by 16.73%, followed by extremely randomized trees (16.40%), XGBoost (15.92%), loess (15.36%), random forests (12.75%), polyMARS (12.36%), MARS (4.74%), lasso (0.11%) and support vector regression (-0.45%). Based on the obtained large-scale results, we propose super learning for daily streamflow forecasting.

The increasing availability of large but noisy data sets with a large number of heterogeneous variables leads to the increasing interest in the automation of common tasks for data analysis. The most time-consuming part of this process is the Exploratory Data Analysis, crucial for better domain understanding, data cleaning, data validation, and feature engineering. There is a growing number of libraries that attempt to automate some of the typical Exploratory Data Analysis tasks to make the search for new insights easier and faster. In this paper, we present a systematic review of existing tools for Automated Exploratory Data Analysis (autoEDA). We explore the features of twelve popular R packages to identify the parts of analysis that can be effectively automated with the current tools and to point out new directions for further autoEDA development.

We develop methods for parameter estimation in settings with large-scale data sets, where traditional methods are no longer tenable. Our methods rely on stochastic approximations, which are computationally efficient as they maintain one iterate as a parameter estimate, and successively update that iterate based on a single data point. When the update is based on a noisy gradient, the stochastic approximation is known as standard stochastic gradient descent, which has been fundamental in modern applications with large data sets. Additionally, our methods are numerically stable because they employ implicit updates of the iterates. Intuitively, an implicit update is a shrinked version of a standard one, where the shrinkage factor depends on the observed Fisher information at the corresponding data point. This shrinkage prevents numerical divergence of the iterates, which can be caused either by excess noise or outliers. Our sgd package in R offers the most extensive and robust implementation of stochastic gradient descent methods. We demonstrate that sgd dominates alternative software in runtime for several estimation problems with massive data sets. Our applications include the wide class of generalized linear models as well as M-estimation for robust regression.